Fooled by Randomness 隨機騙局

剛剛完成RPT 的年度德州撲克大賽決賽,雖然最後沒有進 final table,也是感到雖敗猶榮。在牌桌上悟出了非常多的人生道理,並大量的用上所學的賽局理論。一直認為能否進 final table,50-70% 看牌技,30-50% 看運氣。感受到人生不也是如此?在自己的專業鑽研,成功的機率 50-70%,或是更高,但是真正是否可以出眾,仍然無法完全排除掉運氣。無意中讀了 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 所寫的 Fooled by Randomness 隨機騙局,突然有找到知己的感覺!!不管有沒有財務或經濟學的背景,這本書真的建議朋友們都找來看!運氣,或是隨機,永遠都會在我們人生所有的局上扮演一個重要的角色!既然無法完全掌握,與其求神問卜,不如真正的擁抱隨機的美麗,完全的承認隨機在每一個決策上的地位。突然一個衝動很想寫一本書關於德州撲克,賽局與人生。

Just finished the annual RPT finals.  Although I didn’t make it to the final table, I was happy enough to come this far.  I was inspired a lot of theories during playing this game and massively applying my knowledge in gaming theories against other players.  I have always thought it takes 50-70% of skills and 30-50% of lucks to play, and felt it has always been this way in one’s everyday life and decisions.   Life is just exactly the same.  No matter how professional one is, he can never rule out the influence of luck for being really outstanding.  Read the book “Fooled by Randomness” written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb during one of my flights and so happy that my thoughts and theories are verified by another reputable economist.  I would really recommend this book to anyone with our without finance or economics background.  Luck, or randomness will always play a big part of our life.  Since we can never 100% control the randomness, rather than asking supernatural power, we might as well embrace the true beauty of it and completely admit its part in all decision makings.   Suddenly go this impulse to write a book about poker, gaming theory and life.

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